Making Decisions in Times of Uncertainty
Most decisions are based on less than perfect information – data that is imperfectly measured, missing data, contested assumptions, and information on only a portion of a problem (Rutter et al., 2020). Instead of feigning or seeking certainty, we need to be open about the uncertainty surrounding a decision and acknowledge the limitations of imperfect data. In other words, in today’s environment, we need to recognize that we may need to make decisions based on the “balance of probabilities” instead of “evidence beyond a reasonable doubt.”
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During these times, we should be encouraged to explore the following to prevent us from slipping into a highly biased decision:
Assume that most data or information will be flawed or incomplete.
For some questions, acknowledge that we may not reach certainty. Therefore, you may need to balance the need to make timely decisions or wait for more definitive information.
Accept complexity, learn to explore paradoxes, and take time to reflect before acting.
Keep in mind that different people and different groups are likely to interpret data differently. Learn to use this to generate multi-faceted solutions.
Role of Emotions in Decision Making
Many psychological theories suggest that emotions are adaptive processes that prepare the body for action. Our emotional appraisal of a situation prepares the body for needed physiological responses. For example, the sight of a bear prompts the brain to make a quick prediction that fighting or fleeing might be required. This, in turn, triggers an increase in heart rate as the body prepares for action. This example shows how emotions are a fast and efficient way of representing the situation to help us make decisions quickly. This process is especially effective in uncertain, complex situations where conscious, intention reasoning is not practical (Cacioppo et al., 2012).
Research also shows that our emotions can change the probability or risk of uncertain events taking place. For example, reading a news story about a plane crash leads us to overestimate the likelihood of future adverse events (Johnson and Tversky, 1983). Specific emotions such as feeling sad can also influence the possibility of tragic events in the future (DeSteno et al., 2000). Furthermore, fearful people tend to make pessimistic risk assessments, while angry people tend to make optimistic ones (Lerner and Kelter, 2001).
Creating Emotion-Laden Scenarios
The ability to imagine oneself in different situations or develop different perspectives can be a way to help us solve problems and make decisions (Anderson et al., 2019). Current theories suggest that we can imagine possible future events by linking memories from past events to project how we believe we will feel if certain events occur in the future. Furthermore, we can select our situation, such as watching a comedy vs. horror movie. We can also modify the situation to change our emotional response, such as turning the lights on during a scary scene or by muting the sound. We can control what we pay attention to by closing our eyes (Anderson et al., 2019). We can also change how we think about a situation, such as becoming aware that we are watching a movie and reminding ourselves that this is not really happening. And finally, we can modify our response by forcing a smile, holding back tears, or taking a deep breath. All of these actions are a form of emotional regulation.
Checklist for Decision Making
In times of extreme uncertainty, there is a risk of over-reacting as well as a risk of under-reacting. The key to making high-quality decisions is to commit to discovery and reflection before acting during these times. The following brief checklist may help you slow the decision-making process down to help you become aware of hidden biases that are affecting your decisions:
List critical assumptions related to the decision.
Decide which ones are still true, which need updating with additional information, and which ones are no longer relevant.
Identify the worst-case scenario and what you would do to reduce the risk of it coming true.
Consider no-regret or low-risk decisions across scenarios you are considering.
Construct trigger events, i.e. if/then action plans. If X happens, then I will….
Remember that during prolonged periods of uncertainty, we tend to rely on well-worn behavior patterns and often look back instead of forward. If you feel overwhelmed, frozen, or reactive, take a moment to reflect before you act. You can use the list above or come up with one of your own. Whatever process you use, the most critical thing is to pause and reflect. This simple act will prevent you from making decisions that may have negative consequences.
References
Anderson, E. C., Carleton, R. N., Diefenbach, M., & Han, P. K. (2019). The relationship between uncertainty and affect. Frontiers in psychology, 10, 2504.
Cacioppo, J. T., Berntson, G. G., Norris, C. J., & Gollan, J. K. (2011). The evaluative space model. Handbook of theories of social psychology, 1, 50-72.
Rutter, H., Wolpert, M., & Greenhalgh, T. (2020). Managing uncertainty in the covid-19 era. bmj, 370.